Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Bridge has bad beats, too

Poker players are notorious for complaining about bad beats. A bad beat is when a hand that is a heavy favorite loses when another player hits a miracle card. Nobody wants to hear about another player's bad beat hands, but that doesn't stop players from whining about them.

Guess what? Bad beats happen in bridge, too.

Last week, Kate and I were playing online bridge at OKbridge and bid to 6 on this deal (rotated):

A K J 10 8
4 3
7
A J 7 6 4
==
6 4 3
A K 7
A 10
K 9 8 5 2

If clubs split 2-1, the contract is cold, (unless there's a weird ruff on opening lead, and then you still might make). Clubs will divide 3-0 22% of the time, but you can handle three in the West hand. East will have all three clubs 11% of the time. If he does, however, you still make when the spade finesse works (slightly more than 50% because you can cash one high honor and pick up a singleton queen).

If I'm doing the math right, 6 is about a 94.5% contract.

Here are all four hands:

A K J 10 8
4 3
7
A J 7 6 4
5 2 Q 9 7
Q 9 8 2 J 10 6 5
Q 9 8 6 5 4 2 K J 3
--- Q 10 3
6 4 3
A K 7
A 10
K 9 8 5 2

We lost 7.29 IMPs for minus 100 instead of picking up a big swing if the slam had made.

One pair made 6. I checked the hand record. When declarer led a spade to the 10, East ducked (I can only imagine it was a misclick.)

You can see all the results here.

5 comments:

  1. I guess the SQ really belongs with east, not south.

    At first glance this seemed like a hand for a strip and endplay, but to clear the red suits, dummy will exhaust itself of trumps, but it will work if E is 5-3-2-3 (and W 0-5-8-0) so maybe it's more like a 94.55% slam. :)

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  2. Yes, but just as in poker, if you keep doing the right thing (like bidding these slams) the percentages will work in your favor in the long haul, and you will be heroes and victorious.

    Might be easier to get to the "long run" in a bridge match, than it is in a poker tournament.

    RT

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  3. @Andre: thanks for the catch -- it's corrected.

    @Ross: I like both games, but you're right about the "long run" being easier in bridge.

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  4. Really unlucky. If either of the long red suits was in the south hand you would made the hand even with the bad trump break.

    That is poker :))

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  5. If you take into account that the trump break makes the spade hook more likely to work, it's about 95.5%. Now, does that make you feel better or worse?

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