I decided at the last minute to shoot over to Biloxi and play today in the WSOP Circuit Main Event. This is a nice tournament with a $1675 buyin, 20K in chips and 30-minute levels. Winners from Friday and Saturday advance to Sunday with the final table to be held Monday. With an excellent structure, I felt it should favor my style of play. I buckled in, ready for a long session of poker, but it was not to be.
In level 3, the blinds were 75/150 and I had a little more than an 18K chip stack. Four players limped for 150 to the small blind who completed. I looked at my hole cards in the big blind to see: ♥Q ♦Q. What would you do?
I didn't want to play a big pot out of position, but with a hand this good, I felt I had to raise to either win it right there or at least thin the field. There was 900 in the pot, counting my blind. I fired out 2050. What do you think of this bet size?
The UTG player called as did the next player to act. The other three folded, and there was 6900 in the pot. The flop was low cards with two clubs. What would you bet? I fired out 6050. That is perhaps an overbet, but I was ready to win it right there. The guy on my left thought for a while and called and the third player folded.
The turn-card was another brick. I had 8800 left and went all in. There was now 19,000 in the pot and the villain had me covered, but just barely. He thought forever and called. We showed our cards and he had: ♣A ♣J. The river was a club and I was walking to the rail.
With one card to come, he had 12 outs (any club or an ace), so he was a 25% favorite to win the hand. It cost him 8800 to win the 27,800 that was already out there, so mathematically he (EDIT) it was a so-so call and got lucky. Sometimes, you have to look at more than the math. It's a tournament, so what would happen if he folded? If your stack would be crippled, then he should call and hope for the best. But here, he would still have around 60 big blinds playing in a slow structure, so again that argues for fold. If instead of calling my bet on the flop, he went all in, I could see that. The way he played it was rather poorly, but he has chips and I'm blogging.
There's another ring event Sunday. I may enter, or I may watch football. We'll see how I feel in the morning.
Photos taken with my point-and-shoot.
You are right about the odds but, unfortunately, it isn't stupid huge.
ReplyDeleteThe other unfortunate thing is he isn't you. Maybe he knew what you described. But, it is certain that he did feel he was going to be crippled compared to sitting pretty. You can accept that, rebuild, and move on -- a whole lot of players can't. It is a regular occurrence that is there. Mostly we can love those early gamblers.
Would have been dumb for you to have folded the best hand too or given him a chance with the right odds. Que Sera, Sera.
Really, not any dumber than with your pro nemesis in the Seniors.
And if he said, "Sorry.", he really didn't mean it. :)
P.S. It is in the mid 50's here and windy. You want to hear a complaint...
ReplyDeleteThose picture are disgusting. Right, Sparky?
I was inside playing poker all day. lol
DeleteI think you played it right MOJO. I don't know about exact bet sizes, etc..., but you got all of your chips in with the best of it, and he spiked the river on a call that he didn't have the odds to make. I think that his preflop call was especially bad also - what does he think that A J suited is ahead of for the jump from 150 to 2,050? When you return to Las Vegas, you have to visit what used to be the I.P. That is now the Quad and the Linq entertainment district - very nice area... Run better next time MOJO... ;)
ReplyDeleteTerrible call from him pre-flop. But he was obviously there to gamble. Probably a satellite winner. Great pics, tho!
ReplyDeleteI added an EDIT. He was getting around 3:1 although he couldn't know the three aces were outs and some of his outs could give me a full house (as far as he knows). Anyway, sorry about the whine. Just the way tournaments go.
ReplyDeleteI think the big preflop and flop bet is what hurt you. A bet of around 3.5 to 4K should get anyone out who didn't have a draw, big overpair (doubtful since they all limped) or magically hit the board. That leaves you about 11K and around 15K in the pot. Then when the flush doesn't hit on the turn you are not giving him the correct odds to call. Of course he might anyway. I might have pushed all in after the flop based on not having enough chips left to push him out on the turn. Again with an Ace and club draw, he might be calling it anyway. If he thinks he has 12 outs, he's around 50/50 after the flop. This might just be one of those damned if you do, damned if you don't hands. Its why poker can be a real pain.
ReplyDeletePersonally I don't raise it so much preflop, probably to 1200 or 1300. But that doesn't mean the result wouldn't have been the same that way either. Sorry you didn't win that flip Mojo. Are you gonna be back here next weekend? I am definitely gonna be playing as everyone else in the house is heading to Disney.
Tough break. FWIW . . . I'm never playing QQ again . . .
ReplyDeleteLast night I was talking with another player right after I felted a guy who had A-Q (I had pocket Kings and the flop was Q-high) My statement was that I have lost more poker hands with Q-Q and A-Q than probably any other hands.
ReplyDeleteWonderful game we play where a random card can mean so much. Ah well -- get 'em on Sunday!
I think if he was calling the big preflop raise with AJ sooted he was gonna be in all the way on the flush draw regardless.
ReplyDeletehe prolly reads lightning's blog.in that he is in Biloxi to Gamboooooooooooooool. get any chicken/waffles or good biscuits/gravy??
ReplyDeleteSurprised by your bet sizing preflop, and I think that is probably what led to you being eliminated so early in this tournament. Who raises from 150 to 2050? Proper raise there would probably have been more like 800-900 or so, given 4 limpers in already. Even the 1300 suggested above seems over the top to me and 2050 actually just screams like a steal/squeeze, and quite possibly helps to make a couple of people call who might have folded to a smaller, more appropriate raise. And it certainly sets things up for later in the hand, when he ends up desperation-calling the turn because your extreme bet sizing has left him in a spot where he has 2/3 of his stack in the pot at this point. This is why raising to 13x the original bet is generally considered a bad move in a tournament -- I know you are a very good player, so I don't mean that as an insult, but I do mean what I said. When someone raises a bet by 13x, all the sharks at the table chuckle inside and immediately put the bullseye on him. It is just not great poker.
ReplyDeleteFigure you bump the 150 up to 900. Everyone but the same 2 guys folds. Now there is more like 3100 in the pot, and you lead out for 2400 on the rags-flop. Let's assume fishy calls with the flush draw. Now the turn is another rag, and there is approx 8000 in the pot. Now if you bet 6000, does he fold?
Because you sized your preflop bet appropriately instead of outrageously too large, now the fish is facing a decision to call off 6000 of the 16,500 he has left, on a 19% draw. He should fold. Even though he called the turn the way you played it when he had the same 19% shot, you forced him into a spot where 2/3 of his stack was already in and he was desperate, so your preflop bet basically "forced" him to call there. If you raise it properly pre, he's still got plenty stack left after the turn card and in my mind is fairly likely to find a fold in that spot.
The outrageously large preflop raise might not have saved you in this hand, but it would have had a much better chance than the way you played it did. In my mind, there are literally zero circumstances under which I would ever raise the 150 blind to 2050 early in a tournament like this. Even if the entire table of 9 others had limped in and I found QQ in the big blind, I am probably only raising there to around 1500. The 2050 is not good poker in my view and this hand is one of the great examples of why. When he flops a set on you the same could be said -- you might save yourself if you had raised a more appropriately smaller amount pre, and then he ends up springing his trap and putting you allin on the turn. With your sizing, you probably have to call there as well with your QQ and you bust yourself.
@anon: thank you for your comment and analysis. When the betting came to me preflop, there was 900 already out there. So, if I raise to 800 or 900 as you suggest, all five limpers are getting proper pot odds to call. You suggest that they would all fold, which isn't what happens in these cases. In fact, the last guy to act (the small blind) said if one more player had called, he would have too. I'm not sure why you keep saying that 2050 was outrageous? It was only barely more than twice the amount that was already out there, a normal three-bet in tournaments, imo. Anyway, I'm not going to debate it -- we'll have to agree to disagree.
ReplyDeleteI wish you weren't so quick to refuse to debate it, because I think this is a very interesting debate. The current bet was 150, and you raised it over 13x that much. You almost never even see that at a poker table. You are apparently relying on the fact that 900 was already in the pot, to say that people would all have called a raise to 900. I play poker every single day, and that simply is not the case. Each of these people was in there for 150, and regardless of the amount in the pot, likely most of them would have folded if they had to put in essentially 5% of a starting stack just to see the flop. And if you don't think 900 would have worked, then certainly 1200 would. A very small percent of limpers preflop are then going to be willing to put in another grand-plus just to see the flop. A preflop raiser might, but not a preflop limper. What's weird is, I know you play more than enough poker yourself to know that I am right about this, so I am just confused by your response.
ReplyDeleteIf the reason there was 900 in the pot was that someone had raised to 450 and one person had called, then I agree, raising it again to 900 will not get anyone out. Now, they are all getting the right pot odds to call, with basically any hand, if you factor in implied odds. But to suggest that the 900 in the pot means that every single limper will pile in another thousand on top just to see the flop, that is just not right, based on about 2 million hands of experience, and I'm sure your vast actual experience would confirm this as well. Someone only willing to call for a measly 150 is almost surely Not going to call for another thousand out of his 20k stack, which is my whole point.
How is that giving everyone the right pot odds to call? In my example above, the first raise is to 450 and there is currently 900 in the pot, and you raise it to 900 making it 1800 in the pot, and everyone else only has to call another 450 to win at least 1800. In that spot, sure almost any reasonable hand can call another 450 to win 1800 (or more, depending on how many others call in front of you). Technically they only need 25% equity in the hand to make that a good call just based on pure pot odds. Any hand can feel like they have that much to be worth calling there, especially if one or two others have already called your reraise in front of them.
But in your actual hand, that's not the case at all. The bet was 150, everyone was in for just the 150, and the pot was 900. If you raise now to 900, there is 1800 in the pot, and it costs everyone 750 to call that. Unless at Least one person calls, most hands that people have limped in with now affirmatively do Not at all have the pure pot odds to make that call. Which is why all day every day you see people folding to raises just like that. And like I said, if you don't think 900 would have done it, imagine 1200 (still less than the 1300 mentioned above, which I think is larger than necessary). If you raise to 1200, now there is 2000 in the pot, and people need to call 1050 to win 2000. The first guy does not call that raise unless he thinks his hand is at least 50% to win, which most preflop limpers cannot possibly think once you have put in a nice raise like that. Even if they firmly believe you are likely squeezing them with a KQ type of hand, they almost all have to fold. And they almost always do.
I'm confused by your response that the raise sizing is tied only to the amount already out there, without any consideration to the size of the bet being raised. Shouldn't it be much the opposite?
What gives? I love your blog and really value your poker thinking, and this just does not seem like you.
I think you are giving the fish too much credit to even be considering the odds. He has AJc and doesn't even bother to raise PF.. Smells like fish to me.
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