You were declarer in 6♠ on this layout:
♠ A 2
♥ A 7 6
♦ A K Q 10 3 2
♣ Q 4
===
♠ K Q 9 5 3
♥ Q J 3
♦ 6
♣ A 9 7 2
West led the ♠7. You drew three rounds of trumps and West showed out, so you have a sure trump loser. Now what?
When Rick held this hand, he drew three rounds of trumps, then played the ♦A K Q. On the third round, East ruffed and the contract could no longer be made. Here are all four hands (low cards are approximate where immaterial):
♠ A 2
♥ A 7 6
♦ A K Q 10 3 2
♣ Q 4
♠ 7 6 ♠ J 10 8 4
♥ K 10 8 2 ♥ 9 5 4
♦ J 9 8 7 ♦ 5 4
♣ K 9 3 ♣ J 10 6 5
♠ K Q 9 5 3
♥ Q J 3
♦ 6
♣ A 8 7 2
The diamond finesse would have worked. It (when the suit splits no worse than 4-2) is 50%, but banging down diamonds from the top is higher than that -- 54% if I'm reading the Encyclopedia of Bridge correctly. The 54% number is a priori, however, a French term meaning your mama is big and fat and ugly, so there. Okay, I admit I just made up that last part. It's actually Latin and means beforehand or without examination or analysis, or something like that. What it boils down to is that after it is found that East holds four spades, the 54% figure changes/decreases. Don't ask me how much. I like math, but I'm not that big a geek.
Another line that would have worked is this. After drawing three rounds of trumps, play ♦A K and ruff one. Now that you see they are ready to run, lead another trump to East. If you don't do that, he will ruff in and you have no return entry to dummy. Win the return and take a heart finesse. Because you ruffed a diamond, you only have 11 tricks and the heart finesse is your 12th. There is hope that this will work. West led a "safe" trump, so perhaps had the ♥K and was afraid a heart lead would give up a trick.
What line would you try?
The odds on the ♦J falling in three rounds does not change greatly with the known spade break, it is still around 54%.
ReplyDeleteThe chances of West holding the ♦J increases. He has 11 vacant spades in his hand to 9 for East, so it becomes a 11:9 shot that he holds any specific non-spade card (55%). However 6-0 and 5-1 breaks reduce this to a working 44%, so playing from the top remains best.
Richard Pavlicek has many tools to help with these calculations on his site.
Kelsey and Glauert's 'Bridge Odds for Practical Players' has its faults but is an excellent read in this area.
Thanks for your comments, Paul.
ReplyDeleteThis is one where it's close enough that you'd like to be "at the table." In other words, the vibes a good declarer would get from how the opponents play would be worth more than a small percent here or there, I think.
I intentionally discounted 6-0 or 5-1 breaks. I don't see how you can make it in those cases. Agree?
Did you vote in my poll?