It just didn't happen

I played in the Super Stack tournament at the Horseshoe last night. Sixty-seven players plunked down $110 to enter. I busted out 12th, unfortunately, and nine were paid. As best I recall, first was $1850 -- now that would have been sweet. Ninth paid $107 -- so you play your heart out, finish ninth and lose $3 for the night! LOL, but that's tournament poker.

I had this key hand when the blinds were 2000/4000/200: ♠A ♠K. I had ~55,000 in chips (we started with 20,000) and raised from UTG to 12K. It folded to the small blind who thought for a while and called. The pot now was 30K (12K + 12K +2K in antes +4K from the BB) if my math is right.

The flop was ♥10 ♠8 ♠7. The villain moved all in for 23K more. What would you do?

First of all, the villain could be making a stop and go, and I'm ahead. He needs chips just like I do, so he might be making a good move with air. Even if you assume he has something good, I have nine cards that give me the nut flush, and my overcards may be outs, so it's a trivial call.

The villain showed ♣9 ♣8 for a pair of 8s and an open ended straight draw. I used the Cardplayer magazine's odds calculator to see what it thought: I was a 50.1% favorite, the villain was 48.69% favorite and there would be a tie 1.21% of the time. Too bad he didn't just have A-10 for one pair -- his open-ended straight draw made it close.

The turn was a pretty card for me: ♦K moving me up to a 77.27% favorite. The river was a brick, and my hand held.

"Nice catch," said the villain in a mean-spirited way. He made it sound like I sucked out even though I was ahead. I'm glad to say I don't give anybody any sarcastic shit grief when they bust me. Players like that need to grow up. I'm just sayin'.

On the flop, It cost me $23K more to win a 53K pot, so even if he flopped a straight, it was right for me to draw to my flush (36%) from a math standpoint.

There was one other similar hand that I wasn't involved in. When the blinds were 100/200, there were three limpers to the BB who raised to 1200. Two of the limpers called. The flop was: ♠J ♥7 ♥2. The raiser moved all in and one of the others insta-called.

The raiser showed: ♠A ♣A. The caller turned over ♥J ♥10.

Players at the table oohed and ahhed that the caller would risk her entire stack with a flush draw. Not so fast -- she had other outs as the turn showed: ♣10 giving her two pair and her hand held.

I ran it through the odds calculator, and, sure enough, she was a favorite on the flop! She would win 50.71% of the time, the A-A would win 49.29% of the time, and there could not be a tie.

Busto: With 12 left, the blinds were 5000/10,000/500. We were six-each at two tables and the dynamics were this: someone would shove (no use making a 3XBB raise, you were pot committed) and the others would fold. It was all decided pre-flop. I hate a shovefest, but that's often how it plays out.

I had 50K (so my M was around 3), and it folded to me in late position. I had ♠A ♣5 and shoved. At this stage, you need to shove with any two -- the ace was just the lagniappe a bonus. The BB woke up with ♥Q ♦Q and called and I was toast when he flopped a set. No problem. I played well, it just didn't happen.